Is today the right time to buy Vancouver Real Estate or not?
This is a question that I am asked on a near daily basis by clients, friends, family, even my Barista has asked.
My answer has been consistent since day one;
If we are talking about an owner occupied property and in which one plans to reside for at least the next 7-10 years, then the right time to buy is today.
Today is always the right day if you have found the property that works for you on all levels.
What the market is doing on that day is of little importance overall. Market values are like a small yo-yo oscillating on a large escalator.
There are some key things to consider when buying an owner occupied property. Primarily, every time you move house, especially if you have a growing family, is disruptive in all manner of ways. With that in mind if you are able to find the right property for you (& your family) that hits high notes on the variables below, among others, then Take Action!
- Location
- Layout
- Age
- Size
- Recreational amenities
- Schools
- Distance from workplace
- Suite revenue
- the list goes on…
Getting all of these variables aligned is something that takes dedication on both your part and a quality Realtors. The process can often consume a few months or more, and for some of my past clients result in over 100 viewings. This is more than enough to juggle without also trying to ‘time the market’ on that perfect home.
The Vancouver market is sometimes referred to as a roller coaster, however the long steady climbs are rarely followed by as a large of a drop as folks tend to live in fear of. Refer to my ‘yo-yo on an escalator’ analogy above. The basic #’s demonstrate that a detached home in Vancouver has risen from 13K 40 years ago to ~1M today. Not in a straight line mind you. However if you never leave the market straight-line appreciation is not a concern.
One must keep in mind a few keys things;
Very rarely is an accurate short term market prediction made, and even rarer is it made in unison with other pundits. Instead the few accurate predictions are lost in the noise of many contradictory predictions all getting press at the same time.
The MLS #’s are a poor indicator of what is happening today in the market, as in literally ‘today’, this data reflects deals that were negotiated as long as 4 months prior to the completion date which was itself in the previous month. In other words by the time the MLS data indicates a trend one way or another it has in fact been in motion for as long as 6 months and could be worsening or doing a u-turn. Take the MLS data with a grain of salt. It is part of the picture for sure, but not the exclusive indicator.
Where then to get the most accurate data?
Talk to front line folks, Realtors, Brokers, Appraisers, etc. for a better handle on up to the minute trends.
If you suspect industry insiders may be biased… well perhaps we are, based on positive personal experiences with our own homes and investment properties.
Overall prices rising or falling by 10% or even 20% have little impact on the livelihood of a busy Realtor or Broker. This dovetails with the point being made here, short term price fluctuation is not a key factor in the decision to buy. In the long run you will win by owning, not by sitting on the sidelines.
At the end of the day it is all about finding a place you can call home for the duration.
Perhaps the timing will prove poor – whether you buy this month, next year or three years from now. However 7-10 years from now you will most likely be glad that you bought into the market when you did.
Hindsight is significantly simpler than foresight. So go with the big picture, knowing that time fixes pretty well every Real Estate mistake as far as values are concerned, and having a stable home in a community that works for you is perhaps the more important short term and long term goal.
Thank you.
Dustan Woodhouse