The market we can all predict.

The market we can all predict.

The market we can all predict.

9.9 days out of 10; I believe that world conditions trend in a positive direction.  We live in a better world today than we did yesterday.  I am a somewhat Rational Optimist.

As such this recent headline seems to me a bit odd; ‘Canada’s housing market: The one that no one can predict

Really?  It seems predictable, certainly the Real Estate market of the Great Vancouver Regional District anyways.   It has been referred to as a yo-yo on an escalator, short ups and downs during one long upward trend.  I agree with this analogy, and suggest that trend will continue.

My prediction;  No matter when you buy (or bought), 7-10 years down the road you will be glad that you did. (9 times out of 10)

Another prediction; No matter when you sell (or sold), 7-10 years down the road you will be sad that you did. (9 times out of 10)

(note that I say ‘when’, exceptions to my prediction can be influenced by the ‘what’; i.e. hotel condos, strata, Co-Ops, stigmatized properties, etc. – best to stick to a reasonable detached home if possible.)

Supporting data?

The basics of Canada;

  • Stable Democratic Government (quite the statement for a BC resident to make)
  • Rule of Law
  • Definitive property rights
  • Stable Banks (nearly the only ones that did not need Government bailouts in following the fiscal crisis of 2008)
  • Near record low interest rates allowing for faster paydown of principle than ever before.
  • Years of quantitative easing that will likely end with inflation of hard assets (such as Real Estate).

The Lower Mainland is arguably the best place in Canada to live, work & play. (If you click this link, make sure you read the entire entertaining story to the very end – not just the misleading headline)

  • Temperate Climate
  • Ocean, lakes, Mountains all at our doorstep for commerce, play and tourism.
  • Restricted room for development; Water West, Mountains North, ALR East, US Border South.
  • Stable & Diverse Economy

Even with all of this supporting the prospects for appreciation of local Real Estate one should neither view nor treat their home like a stock or bond, rather it should be treated like what it is; a place to live, a place to raise a family perhaps, an opportunity for stability on many levels, an opportunity to become a part of a community.

The fact remains that over the long haul a home in Canada will in 99% of cases prove to be the best investment 99% of people make in their lives.

Speaking of investment and Real Estate, I make that case in this previous post.

Onward , Upward, and absolutely not cashing out.

Ding ding ding…

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Thank you,


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