Real Estate Stats; The Sky Is Not Falling

Real Estate Stats; The Sky Is Not Falling
Numbers; the bane of our modern existence.

We increasingly put our faith in, and base decisions on, what the numbers tell us. Which is to say we allow our decisions, and mindset, to be shaped by the people filtering and publishing the numbers. And the numbers can be spun in all manner of direction on all manner of topic.

So what is my spin? Be cool.

Your home is your home, first and foremost. As for investment properties, they should be positively cash flowing and there is no sign of rental demand decreasing. Be cool. Does the sales activity appear to be slowing? Are house prices easing? Perhaps, but are the numbers really that bad? Compared to what exactly?

When you jump from 120 degree water into 90 degree water it might feel cooler, but 90 degrees is still pretty hot.

When it comes to real estate, numbers, and the media. The media knows that what draws eyeballs are extreme numbers, the $11,000.00 ‘tiny home’, or the $51,000,0000.00 mansion. We care little about the ‘average’. Give us high highs, and low lows. Up 33%, down 39% – but as a percentage of what? Measured against what?

It is always a search for extremes, angling for a sense of dramatic increases or decreases, whether relevant to our own situation at all. It seems little more than an effort to get the amygdala working overtime, that little fear centre in our brains, and hey while we are poking at it I’ll take a triple venti macchiato with an apple fritter please.

Dose me.

Instead, how about…

Calm me.

Rather than comparing a single month this year, to a single month last year and drawing questionable conclusions, perhaps there is another way. Surely it makes more sense to compare last month to the previous five or ten years of the same month, or the overall annual averages?

How are we doing against the overall averages seems like a reasonable question to ask. As opposed to ‘how are we doing against a freakishly strong, or weak, single month last year?

The following numbers focus on detached house sale prices and the number of days on market before selling during Oct 2016 as compared to over the eight years previous. Will the drama be as great as recent headlines indicate? How does last month stack up against the eight year average? Did we fall off a cliff in October?

 

Area 8 year Average Sale Price Oct 2016 Average Sale Price 8 year Avg.

Days On

Market

Oct 2016

Days On

Market

East Vancouver 855,935 1,417,500 16 11
North Van 988,602 1,555,000 16 17
Burnaby 905.639 1,550,000 23 15
Richmond 936,701 1,560,000 30 16
Surrey 545,045 800,000 32 20
Langley 556,458 770,000 29 17
Port Moody 803,704 1,254,000 30 18
Coquitlam 724,191 1,223,000 23 25
Pitt Meadows 510,566 731,000 30 14
Maple Ridge 474,185 698,023 36 14
Mission 372,872 510,000 45 21

 

I am not going show you percentages, but feel free to calculate them if compelled. At a glance it seems pretty straightforward that prices remain strong, and the pace of sales is better than average…on average.

For complete detailed market by market analysis just send me an email and I will attach and return the Oct 2016 reports for you. They will include stats on attached properties and detached properties throughout the GVA.

Thank you

 

Dustan Woodhouse

Related Posts